미국 주식시장 하락과 회복

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미국 주식시장 하락과 회복의 역사

QQQ, SPY, SOXL, TQQQ, 테슬라, 엔비디아 등 미국 주요 ETF와 주식의 완료된 하락, 반등, 회복 기간과 스윙 사이클을 비교합니다.

Swing threshold 이 종목 백테스트 ↗

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Market data: Finazon daily OHLC · Analysis and calculations by ttbbtb

ATH is determined using the daily High.

The drawdown low is the lowest daily Low recorded before the next ATH.

The current drawdown is calculated using the latest completed daily Close.

Recovery occurs when the daily High exceeds the previous ATH.

The Swing Cycle method identifies intermediate market advances and declines using a predefined reversal threshold. A new swing is confirmed only after the price reverses from the previous extreme by the specified percentage.

The numbers

Current position

The record

Completed history

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ABOUT TTBBTB

News and economic indicators can appear positive while markets decline, or negative while markets continue to rise. Often, the convincing explanation arrives only after the move.

Why this exists

ttbbtb steps back from those narratives and organizes what price has actually done: its highs, lows, percentage moves, and time to recover.

Keep the moment in proportion

Major headlines and short-term events can make the present feel larger and more permanent than it is. ttbbtb places the current market move within a longer historical record, helping users step back from the urgency of the moment, keep individual events in proportion, and view the market with a calmer and more disciplined perspective.

Two views, no prediction

ATH Cycle treats the movement after a stock reaches an all-time high as one cycle. It shows how far the price fell from the high, how long it took to reach the low, and how long it then took to recover the previous high. After the recovery, it also shows how far the advance continued before the next decline began.

Swing Cycle separates meaningful rises and declines using the percentage threshold selected by the user. When the price moves by that percentage in the opposite direction from a previous high or low, a reversal is confirmed and the movement between the turning points is recorded as one upward or downward cycle. Smaller price fluctuations are filtered out so that each cycle's percentage change and duration can be compared.

The technical-analysis trap

Highs and lows look obvious in hindsight, but they are unknown when they occur. A pattern, average, or occurrence count does not guarantee the next result.

ttbbtb is descriptive, not predictive. Nothing here is investment advice.